MANILA – The country must brace for a potentially stronger typhoon season with the possibility of a La Niña episode developing before the end of 2025, the weather bureau said Tuesday.
In a press statement, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral that it has been continuously monitoring in the tropical Pacific is most likely to persist until October.
However, it said that climate models show an increasing probability of short-lived La Niña conditions emerging between September and December.
La Niña, or the cool phase of ENSO, is characterized by unusually cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
PAGASA said a La Niña Watch is issued when conditions are favorable for the development of La Niña within the next six months, and the probability is 55 percent or more.
“Historically, La Niña is characterized by an above-average number of tropical cyclone occurrences towards the end of the year and above-normal rainfall conditions in most parts of the country that can trigger adverse impacts, including floods and landslides in vulnerable areas,” PAGASA said.
Earlier La Niña episodes that have hit the country were also linked to heavier monsoon rains, agricultural losses, and deep flooding.
PAGASA has urged local government, including disaster-response agencies and the public, to strengthen preparedness and take precautionary measures. (PNA)